The military coup d’état that has overthrown Egypt’s first democratically elected president and led to the arrests of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leaders across the country poses an enormous danger not only to Egypt’s democratic transition, but to the democratic hopes of the entire Arab world as well.
After the ouster of President Morsi in a military coup on 3 July the Egyptian streets are pouring with human blood, and sporadic extra-judicial arresting of MB figures is going on. The Associated Press reported from Cairo, that prosecutors will investigate allegations that Egypt’s ousted president escaped from prison during the 2011 revolution with help of the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Junta-appointed chief prosecutor Hesham Barakat has received testimonies from a court in the Suez Canal city of Ismailia that will be the base for an investigation by state security prosecutors into the jailbreak by Mohammed Morsi and more than 30 other Muslim Brotherhood leaders, according to the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media.
Professor Mensur Akgün of Istanbul’s Kültür University stated in an interview to Barçın Yinanç of the Hürriyet Daily News about the recent developments in Egypt: “No doubt it was a coup. It took place not on Wednesday, but on Monday when the army issued an ultimatum.” Professor Akgün further explained that “All coups receive support from society. Armies don’t stage coups without the support of society; armies create the support in society.”
As Eminent Turkish Journalist, Taha Özhan pointed out in his column on Hurriyat Daily News (11 July), “If Egypt has to choose between the ‘growing pains of democratisation’ and the ‘military-judiciary tutelage,’ it should not hesitate to pick the former option. There is, in fact, a strong possibility that the former option offers an exit out of what we may call ‘political turbulence.’ The latter option, on the other hand, which we may call ‘bureaucratic oligarchy,’ may clear the path to a Mubarakism that Egypt would be sentenced for years to come.”
The dissolution of Egypt’s first democratically elected parliament on 14 June, 2012 was the first coup during the post-revolution period. The undemocratic liberals’ and the secularists’ response to this coup was, in fact, a clear indication of how Egypt’s political landscape would be shaping up in the days to come. What the events of 14 June signalled was actualised with an actual coup on 3 July, 2013.
Özhan further elucidated: “The Sheikh of Al-Azhar, the Coptic Pope and a Salafi stood behind the Head of Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), General Al-Sisi. The well designed façade of the coup collapsed only a few days later. The Sheikh of Al-Azhar could not even walk around on his own campus. And all Copts saw the stalemate the Coptic Pope – consecrated after one of the wiser men of Egypt Pope Shenouda had passed away – dragged the country into. The Nour Party, which represents only one segment of the Salafi movement in Egypt, was turned upside down with the news of some members supporting the coup. And the liberals, who proved to be the epitome of moral bankruptcy and who worked with all their might to make the coup d’état happen, have disappeared. Indeed, Tahrir is calm and empty once again”.
On Friday, 13th July, braving the scorching heat of summer on the third day of Ramadhan, millions of followers of deposed Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi are staging mass protests across the country. “Oh, God, return to us our president Morsi, who was kidnapped by the new pharaoh, Sisi,” the preacher said, referring to army chief and Defence Minister Abdel Fatah Sisi, at Nahda Square in the Giza Governorate,. The massive rallies of Pro-Morsi supporters have dwarfed the small pro-coup celebrations on Tahrir Square.
As reported by “World Bulletin” Palestinian worshippers marched Friday (12 July) through Al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third holiest shrine, in support of Egyptian president Mohammad Morsi who was ousted by the military.” “Down, Down Sisi” chanted the Palestinian supporters, describing what happened in Egypt as a military coup.
The junta administration is trying to quell the protests by assassinating the civilians. The Egyptian army has sentenced itself to a quagmire it cannot get out of. The Generals must know that people do not fear anymore the guns and tanks on Cairo streets. The army does not possess the necessary political and sociological skills to endure a long term standoff with the public. The biggest problem the army is facing right now is how it will get out without turning Egypt into an Algeria or a Syria or, into the least worst a Pakistan. The only person who can really answer this question is the president they ousted, Morsi.
There are three looming scenario that may emerge from post-coup Egypt.
THE ALGERIAN SCENARIO :
In the Algerian elections of 1991, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) won about 50 per cent of the vote in the first-ever multi-party parliamentary elections since Algeria’s independence. The Algerian military intervened, annulled the democratic elections, took over and was supported by western governments on the grounds that Algeria would have become a religious state. The ensuing civil war led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people.
Unlike FIS, a hurriedly assembled political umbrella formed in 1989, to fight the first multi-party elections in Algeria, MB in Egypt is a well-established and disciplined socio-political organisation. It is impossible for any tutelage to cease MB from socio-politico-economic fabric of the country.
In the killing spree at Revolutionary Guard headquarters by Egyptian Military under the guise of terrorist attacks one soldier was killed, as per Army statements, but it is widely believed that the army opened fire on protesters indiscriminately during the pre-dawn prayers. In any Algeria-like scenario the ruling Army generals are ought to ban Muslim Brotherhood from taking part in coming elections or may stage grave rigging in the “proposed” elections to oust the MB, as the earlier Mubarak regime used to do. It looks like a very remote possibility that the Junta will be able to brand devotedly peaceful MB a terrorist outfit or completely ban the organisation from playing a political role in Egypt.
THE SYRIAN SCENARIO :
The second scenario is of Syria where frustrated people, when not given democratic rights took arms as a final resort. But Egypt is very different from Syria; the country has only one significant minority that are Coptic Christians; rest are Sunni Muslms, unlike Syria where social and religious mosaic is quite diversified. Another important factor is that Egypt is mostly divided on ideological basis not on sectarian basis.
Unlike Syria where minority Alawite/Nuseyri regime of Al-Assad family is ruling the country for the last four decades, Egypt is having all its dictators from the predominant majority i.e. Sunni Muslims.
THE PAKISTAN SCENARIO :
This is most likely scenario; Pakistan is notorious to welcome the military coups because of immaturity of its political class. Like what we witnessed in Egypt recently, opposition politicians had no patience to wait for next general elections. Whereas, in the last coup avatar the then Army chief Pervez Musharraf deposed the democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and initially, many people supported the military coup d’état. Later, when euphoria of political rivalry dropped down, he lost the popular support and forced to leave the Presidential post and subsequently went to self-exile. On his comeback on the eve of recently held parliamentary elections he was arrested by authorities and now spending his time in the jail facing various charges including the high treason, while Nawaz Sharif got re-elected by the people of Pakistan and now ruling the country, once again.
The bottom line here is this. If Egyptians are looking for democracy through dictators, chances are they will be deeply disappointed. There is one more scenario that is significant to be mentioned. Here is of Nigerian scenario where the then General Olusegun Obasanjo handed over power to an elected government in 1979 – on a promise made by his predecessor. But such moves are rare. Obasanjo then returned as an elected president and served the country with two successive four-year terms (1999-2007).
CONCLUSION :
The prospects for Egypt’s post-coup transition have become increasingly difficult to predict, but one thing is clear: The Junta and a mix of judicial-military tutelage cannot and must not be trusted. During the period after the fall of Mubarak, when the SCAF exercised full power, 12,000 civilians were charged in military courts, virginity tests were imposed on women (particularly those protesting against the military), hundreds of demonstrators were killed and countless human rights violations were committed with impunity.
Suffice it to note here that whatever punitive course Junta may adopt, Muslim Brotherhood will emerge, even more powerful and a more cohesive force after the diminution of military coup haze. The popularity of deposed president Morsi is accelerating by every passing day and that will further accelerate his reinstatement.
http://www.radianceweekly.com/368/10966/bodh-gaya-blasts-terrorist-violence-and-political-agenda/2013-07-21/egypt-military-coup/story-detail/post-coup-egypt-unfolding-of-likely-scenario.html
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