Prolonged Arab awakening and its
reverse in Egypt had put Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan into
immense complexity. The country presented by its leader as a role model of
Muslim democracy, is now facing a paraxial situation from Syria to Iraq and
from Egypt to Iran. Turkey, once a trouble shooter of the region, is now
embedded in regional chaos, where almost every country in the region is
unstable. Prolonged Syrian civil war, Egyptian coup, Iraq’s sectarian strife,
tensions with Iran on regional issues and, last but not the least, growing
uneasiness with Arab monarchies that are now in opposite camp supporting the
military coup in Egypt whereas Erdoğan vehemently opposed the coup against Islamist
leaning President Mohamed Morsi.
Ever since the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
(pronounced Rajab Tayyab Erdogan) led AK Party (AKP) came to power in 2001,
Turkey has started looking increasingly to its Muslim and Arab Eastern
neighbours. Prime Minister Erdoğan has personally shaped excellent rapports
with various regional leaders, including Basher Al-Assad, Ahamdinejad of Iran,
and the late Ghaddafi of Libya. His personal efforts have put Turkey in the
core of Middle Eastern geopolitics and simultaneously improved Turkey’s
commercial and political standing in those countries.
From the time when the Arab uprising
against dictators started in the spring of 2011 and reached the Syrian
hinterland, Erdoğan personally tried to direct Al-Assad to solve the crisis but
he forgot that Al-Assad is an ingrained dictator and would not take his advice
sufficiently seriously. Erdoğan personally felt disregarded when Basher
Al-Assad did not heed to his advice and refused to implement the reforms
advised by Erdoğan and his foreign minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.
The ‘zero problems with
neighbourhood’ policy architected by foreign minister Davutoğlu suddenly turned
into ‘zero friends in the neighbourhood’ as Al-Maliki of Iraq also started
bickering against Turkey on Iran’s behest. Now Turkey is in a war-like
situation with Syria, diplomatic strife with Iraq and Iran and has seriously
troubled relations with Israel, even after the accomplishment of long awaited
apology. Another huge setback was the Egyptian military coup that has severely
crippled Erdoğan’s regional manoeuvres. The entire Middle Eastern
schematic that Erdoğan has shaped in the last 10 years has been fatally
disturbed by the regional upheaval.
Undoubtedly, it is imperative for
Turkey to emerge victorious from the Syrian quagmire for its own standing in
the Middle East. It is extraordinarily difficult for a country like Turkey to
live in the atmosphere of animosity in the bewildered region because Turkey is
expected to lead the region politically and diplomatically. I am of the belief
that Turkey’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-European (EU) partners
have put Turkey in a situation where she can neither withdraw herself nor can
she act militarily to cleanse the Syrian swamp.
Fist the coup d’état and now the
bloody massacre of anti-coup, pro-Morsi supporters in Egypt has exacerbated
Erdoğan where he likened the new military leader Al-Sisi to Pharaoh. The
regional pro status-quo consisting of US-EU-Israel and Arab monarchies openly
backing the coup has isolated Erdoğan. It remains to be seen how Erdoğan would
manage his country’s relationship with the GCC monarchies who are the foremost
backers of military coup in Egypt. Turkey that has been at odds with Iran on
Syrian issue is now also at odds with Saudi Arabia on the Egyptian coup. It
will turn out to be a humongous task for Erdoğan to manage the souring ties
with two regional heavyweights on two different issues.
The Syrian crisis has opened the
Pandora’s box of Shia-Sunni conflict in the entire west Asian region that was
long subdued due to the US invasion of Iraq, Israeli-Palestine conflict and
Turkish-Iranian bonhomie in the pre-Syrian crisis period. Now the region has
divided along sectarian lines, where Sunnites are Supporting Sunnites and
Shiites are backing Shiites. The problem has taken a sectarian tone from Yemen
to Bahrain, Saudi Arabia to Syria and Iraq to Lebanon. The Syrian crisis has
turned the greater Middle East in a Shia-Sunni turf war in which one side has
Iran, al-Maliki, Hezbollah and al-Assad and the other has the Saudi-Qatar-led
GCC and Turkey.
This bloody sectarian conflict will
not be resolved in next few months or years. As the geopolitical events unfold,
we will witness a quasi-permanent fratricidal intra-Islamic sectarian war for
decades in the west Asian region, culminating into major cartographical
changes. The US strategic retreat from the Middle East and pivot to East Asia
will finally allow history to reemerge in the Middle East uncontaminated by the
hegemonic order imposed by the Western-US’ hyper-power.
Many Turkish experts are of the
opinion that Erdoğan has hastened his disenfranchisement with the brutal regime
of Bashar-Al-Assad. He should have moulded his policies in a way that provided
him the prominence of regional statesman so that he could mediate in the
ominous sectarian conflict as a neutral power broker. By getting involved in
the crisis he has become a part of problem himself and misplaced the advantage
of neutrality for solving the impending sectarian catastrophe in the region.
Suffice it to say that though
isolated in the region, Turkey of today under Erdogan’s leadership has set the
benchmark of democratic and ethical governance in the most unstable region
ruled by west backed despots. Turkey is the only country in the region that
took equally tough stand against the dictator of Syria and Egypt’s coup and now
the junta regime. Morally correct stand of Erdoğan administration, in the wake
of regional crisis will pave the way for a stronger Turkey in the post
status-quo Middle East and North Africa.
http://radianceweekly.in/portal/issue/erdogans-morally-correct-stand-on-egypt-syria/article/erdogans-morally-correct-stand-on-egypt-syria-2/
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