Erdogan, Gulen feud and emerging trends in Turkish Politics

The self exiled Turkish scholar and preacher Fetullah Gulen, called Hocaefendi (Respected Master) by his followers, is now in a direct clash with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Supporters of both of these men are now in open political warfare.

During the 12 years of Erdogan’sAK Party rule, the Turkish power structure has been cleansed and reshaped. The Western looking power of the Kemalist has waned, the judiciary purged and the military circumscribed.These dominant power centers of Turkey’s deep state were controlled and contained under the civilian rule of the Prime Minister Erdogan. But this period of the ascendancy of Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party), also witnessed the rapid rise in power and influence throughout the country of Gulen’s Hizmet movement.

Hizmet was for the most part funded by a network of private schools and tutoring centers (Dershanelers) throughout Turkey. These ostensibly also acted as a support base for the movement’s charismatic leader, (Gulen) who lives in Pennsylvania in the United States.

According to analysts, Erdogan and his top policy makers decided to shut tutoring centers down, which was and is an existential threat to Gulen. He in turn retaliated by orchestrating, (through Hizmet’s network within the police and judiciary) a series of  “corruption” investigations aimed at discrediting Erdoğan and his AK Party. They specifically targeted businessmen, a banker and few important members of Erdoğan’s Cabinet.

Many observers believe that this firestorm has been building up for the last three years, at least since the Mavi Marmara incident. At that time Gulen gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal criticizing in general, the AK Party backed “charity”Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) and Erdogan’s government specifically, for the Marvi Marmara flotilla aimed at breaking the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza.

Pro- Government media outlets saw a “foreign hand” involved in whatshould have only been internal differences relative to Turkish national policies. They went on to blame the Gulen Movement for fermenting the Gezianti government protests in May of last year as well. The fight between Erdogan and Gulen Movement turned really ugly however, when former believed that the latter used his people within the Turkish judiciary to try and get rid of the pro Erdoğan MIT chief HakanFidan.

Gulen’s Hizmet movement is very strong in many Turkish state institutions such as the Police, Judiciary, State Media (TRT), Ministry of Education, etc.

It is worth mentioning that Prime Minister Erdogan and some of his close associates in AK Party come from the MilliGörüş, (National  Outlook Movement) of NecmettinErbakan, the former Prime Minister and late leader of the now  defunct Refah Partisi, (Welfare Party). That movement was Islamic conservative and loosely speaking, a counterpart of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and similar groups.

Gülen’s movement on the other hand has been pro-West and strongly free market-oriented. His democratic credentials however, have been questioned, given his strongly pro-state position on the Kurdish issue, the military Interventions of 1980 and 1997, and other issues as well.So, for the Erdogan this was condensed into a demand for a rigidly Islamic state, while Gulen wants to uphold the existing Turkish state with its semi-democratic, somewhat secular structure.

As reported by Hurriyet Daily News, on December 21st Gulen mounted an unprecedented attack on the government, accusing it of, in effect covering up corruption allegations, by instead going after the police who were honestly trying to investigate them.Gulen cursed the AK Party and Erdoğan in a video message to his followers that was shown on Turkish TV saying; “Those who don’t see the thief but go after those who chase the thief ... May Allah bring fire to their homes,”

Before his December 22nd trip to Pakistan, Erdogan shot back, (relative to Gulen’s “curse”) saying “We pray for Muslims to reach the right Way, not for their damnation. Cursing is such a trick among Muslims. It  will return to one who did this like a boomerang,”

The upcoming elections in Turkey are going to be crucial. If the AK Party can repeat its past performance and get around 50% of the vote it will no longer need Gulen. On the other hand if AK Party drops under 45 percent, it will spell trouble for Erdoğan.A small drop in votes would mean Erdoğancan live without Gulen, Gulen Movement’s supporters’ estimate there popular support to be around 15% of potential voters. To compensate for expected Gulen Movement losses, Erdoğan is banking on increased Kurdish support from his recent outreaches to the Kurdish population.

Several AK Party parliamentarians have resigned since the beginning of the GulenMovement owned prep school closing controversy. That includes the recent resignation of the founding member of the AK Party, the former interior Minister Idris NaimSahin. More resignation are expected in coming days and weeks. It remains to be seen whether these resignations will change the internal structure of the AK Party, as it could break into two factions. One faction being Pro- Erdogan Islamic conservativesand the other Anti-Erdoğan Islamic liberal.How will all of this shake out relative to Erdoğan’s reelection hopes? We will learn soon enough through the ballot box and the voice of the Turkish people.

One thing seems certain however, the struggle between the Turkish MB-inspired AK Party, (the successor of Milli Gorus and pan-Islamic) and the Pro-Western Gulen-inspired Turkish Islamic is not going to go in favor of the Kemalists.

This Gulen- Erdogan rift will revolve around the level of American influence on Conservative Islamic democratic Politics and its direction and focus in the medium term. Fethullah Gulen, directs his movement from the United States. So the US ostensibly retains greater "control" over it than it does over the MB considerate AK Party.The relationship between the Anglo-Saxons and the Turkish Gulen movement type Islamicmovement is far greater than the trust the West is ready to invest in other Islamic socio political movements.

Turkish Islamic conservatives who are not inspired by Gulen, may and do take up causes that create some discomfort to the United States and its allies in the region. Examples of that were Erdoğan’s vehement opposition to the Egypt’s coup, his support of the Gaza Flotilla, and his opting for a Chinese air defense system.

The Turkish pan-Islamic conservatives such as Erdoğan appeal to the Arab/ Muslim street, while the Gulen Movement appeals to Western capitals, as a white face of Islamic Politics that they can do business with. There is no way that in this struggle Kemalists are going to come out to be winners. The Gulen Movement will end up replacing this Western-friendly model in the public mind with a shade of Islamism only somewhat different to the one that the AK Party and Erdoğan will favor.

Suffice it to say here that the real struggle will be between Turkey as a fully independent country capable of making its own decisions, or one that will first and foremost need to take the interests of the West into consideration before making decisions on international and even national issues."

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=yazarHaber&ArticleID=2391